AFRICAN PANORAMA
WATCHING THROUGH THE BIRDS' EYES
The Guinean Crisis: Why Ellen Sirleaf should be placed under a watch
There are theories in Plain Truth newspaper story about President Sirleaf’s alleged gun running in Guinea. “Behind every fire there is a smoke” has for time immemorial been proven. The incursion into Liberia in 1989 is a common example that there is a smoke behind a fire. The destabilization of the region began with speculations and media reports, which the then government of Samuel Doe denied over and over followed by arrests of journalists.
The last report of dissident activities on the border with Ivory Coast, was published by newspapers after some citizens of Nimba County observed suspicious activities there. Unfortunately, journalists were arrested and their papers banned for what Samuel Doe called a “campaign to destabilize the country.” A local chief in Nimba County was suspended by the Internal Affairs minister for disinformation. The local chief was reinstated after the insurgents crossed the border and the minister of Internal Affairs was fired for negligence in handling sensitive information.
Although the Sirleaf administration has denied this gun running story and taken a drastic action against the paper’s publisher and printer, political, media, and military analysts as well as criminologists who have kept track of President Sirleaf’s political activities in the region would want to give the story some credence and a second thought for a comprehensive scrutiny in the interest of the security of the people in the West African sub-region.
The reason why president Sirleaf would want to destabilize the region starting in Guinea has various motives. President Sirleaf administration, up to present, only trained 2000-persons for the Armed Forces of Liberia against the backdrop of approaching time-table for the withdrawal of UN troops beginning in 2011. Whether Liberia would have trained troops more than the size or equal to the size of UN troops, is one thing and building credibility in the country’s armed forces is another thing for the Sirleaf administration that intends to stay in power for another term. That would be the benefit of arming dissidents in Guinea. This should support the theory of fear and social disorganization.
The past continues to haunt Sirleaf; and her shadow is her own fear. The president was the architect surrounded by architects of political violence, and was credited with the successful destabilization of the entire region for the sake of power. The Sirleaf administration is blessed with political geniuses and master planners who can do anything to suppress opposition parties.
President Ellen Johnson started her military campaign in West Africa during the Samuel Doe regime. She aided the late General Thomas G. Quiwonkpa in the foiled coup of November 12, 1985. Sirleaf helped mobilize human and financial resources and arms in America, Africa, and Europe for the civil war that lasted for a decade and half.
Sirleaf visited the United States, France, Libya, Ivory Coast, and Burkina Faso during the planning for destabilization of the sub-region. It is widely believed that these countries helped destabilize the region although they have yet to come clean with the peoples in Sierra Leone and Liberia on their specific roles in the destruction.
African political history is replete with military coups resulting to full scale wars followed by immediate post-war eras. Given the post-war psychological trauma, hidden agendas, ingrained pleasure for military power by Liberian new recruits who experienced the war in one way or the other, there is a reason for panic within the ruling party. Thus, there is more to the Plain Truth’s story other than a mere speculation.
It is obvious that after UN troops pull out, the Sirleaf administration will be at greater risk of a military coup since Liberia’s new soldiers will still have fresh memories of military power amidst weaknesses in some areas in the West African sub-region. So if the region is destabilized, Sirleaf and her lieutenants will end their second term under continued UN security watch and protection.
On December 14,2009 the Guardian, a British newspaper, reported that ECOWAS had called for foreign troops to be sent into Guinea to prevent further violence after an assassination attempt on the life of Captain Moussa "Daddis" Camara, the Guinean military ruler (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/guinea).
Guinea has accused France of complicity in the shooting of its new head of state as the hunt for the assassin threatened to spiral out of control, according to the Guardian.
The Guardian also reported that African, US and European diplomats had met to discuss the return of civilian rule in Guinea because of fears that a power struggle between rival commanders may drag the country into civil war and destabilize the region. But the Guinean military leadership has warned that any deployment of foreign troops in the country would be considered an act of war.
As it stands, a very careful watch must be placed not only on the junta in Guinea, but also on all incumbent heads of state including president Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf - to be specific. The instability in the region was master-minded by both internal and external forces. Liberia was destabilized through Ivory Coast with the backing of Burkina Faso, Libya, France, and the US. Sierra Leone was destabilized by Liberia while Guinea was used by anti-Taylor’s elements to escalate the war in Liberia. Up to present, there are thousands of vulnerable dissidents and former combatants who are scattered in the region and can be recruited. West Africa and the sub-region should be mindful of their god-father countries.
By Thomas Kai Toteh
